How it's calculated
Your racing weight is estimated from your lean body mass — the part of you that isn't fat — and a healthy goal body-fat percentage. Rather than chasing the lowest possible number, it works backward from the mass you want to keep.
Racing Weight = Lean Body Mass ÷ (1 − Goal Body Fat %)
The time projection uses a well-known rough guide from running-economy research: for excess fat you lose, running improves by roughly 0.5–1% per 1% of body mass lost (we use 0.7% as the midpoint). It only applies to fat above a healthy level — the projection stops at the healthy floor, because losing muscle makes you slower, not faster.
Sources
- Body-fat ranges: Mathisen TF et al. (2023). Best practice recommendations for body composition in sport. BJSM 57(17):1148–58 — IOC consensus subgroup (PubMed 37752006); Andreato et al. (2024) Olympic cohort (PMC10948543). Descriptive ranges from sports-science data — the BJSM 2023 paper explicitly notes no single cut-off signifies a performance advantage. Measurement method (DEXA vs. skinfold) shifts values by several percentage points.
- Mass-to-performance relationship: Barnes KR & Kilding AE (2015). Running economy: measurement, norms, and determining factors. Sports Med Open (PMC4555089). The 0.5–1% estimate is an extrapolation from added-weight literature; no single study measures the effect of fat loss directly — hence the hedge in the projection.
- RED-S & health risks: Mountjoy M et al. (2014). The IOC consensus statement: beyond the Female Athlete Triad — RED-S. BJSM (PubMed 24620037). Documents impaired metabolic rate, menstrual function, bone health, immunity, and cardiovascular health from low energy availability. The ~6%/~12% floor values are approximate essential-fat thresholds from the broader sports-science literature, not stated as hard cut-offs in the IOC statement.
- BMI limitations: Qasim M et al. (2024). Strengths and limitations of BMI in the diagnosis of obesity. Curr Obes Rep (PMC11306271). Peer-reviewed; full text freely available.
- Method: Fitzgerald M. Racing Weight: How to Get Lean for Peak Performance, 2nd ed. VeloPress, 2012 — origin of the lean-body-mass approach used here. Secondary/popular source.